From Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”