Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.